Demographics
HIV and Population Decline

High HIV infection rates and mortality cause a different kind of population growth curb than that shown in this module. In a number of countries, HIV is projected to turn population growth to decline. HIV has already infected 20% or more of all adults aged 15-49 in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. This translates to infant HIV infection. For example, in Zimbabwe, 70% of all deaths under the age of 5 are from AIDS.*

The simulator in this module is based on fixed age-structured mortality rates. It has no model for increasing mortality rates. So this file is an attempt to include the subject, though not the simulation.

Below are two superimposed population pyramids for Botswana for 2020. The larger pyramid is Botswana's projected population without HIV. The smaller pyramid is the projection with HIV. The year 2000 birthrate in Botswana is 30 per 1000. The deathrate is 22 per 1000, projected to rise to 36 per 1000 around the year 2010. (For comparison, the US birthrate is 14 and deathrate 9 per 1000).

Another view of HIV can be seen in this chart. In Zimbabwe, life expectancy at birth is now 38 instead of the 70 it would have been without HIV.

You can generate pyramids for these and most countries in the world, using professional, shifting demographers' rates, at:

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html


* The information and diagrams in this file are from: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/hivdurbn.html, The Status and Trends of the HIV/AIDS/STD Epidemics in the World.
Ginger Booth, orig December 2000, for stephen.stearns@yale.edu