Purpose

General

Scenarios

Inputs

Outputs

Links

Retirement Calculator


Launch Calculator
This calculator helps explore IRA retirement savings.

The top plot shows the savings phase before retirement.

The bottom plot translates those savings into income during retirement.

In general, the lines to watch are the green ones, labeled "2004$" (assuming the year is now 2004). That means the amount has been inflation-adjusted to current purchasing power.

General Notes

The values you input are only used inside the calculator. They are never sent over the Internet, never saved on your computer. They're private. If you want to save your work, you can print it.

You can grow the window and the plots will grow. The legend boxes can be moved around with the mouse.

If you place the cursor on a plot line, a popup shows the value at that position. This doesn't work well near the right hand edge of a plot - I'm investigating how to fix that.

Scenarios

The Scenarios are pre-set inputs, to quickly explore different retirement savings situations. Most inputs are the same across scenarios for ease of comparison.

Mid-Career: This person is on track for a fairly comfortable, stable retirement income. She's already saved some, and can continue saving at the current rate to meet modest retirement goals.

Early Career: This person is just starting to save for retirement, and starting early. This may have been how the Mid-Career person started out, as 15 years in, the Early Career person has about the same savings as the Mid-Career person begins with. However, because of 15 years more inflation, his same $2000/month Social Security is worth less.

Late Career: She had higher priorities earlier in her career, and is now playing catch-up. She saves twice as much per month as the prior two, but there are only 14 years left to retirement. She might be able to save even more, or plan to live on a smaller, sustainable retirement income.

Retired: Saving more isn't an option - the goal here is to find what level of income is best suited to the assets already accumulated. That isn't a problem in this case. If he keeps on the way he's going, his survivors are likely to inherit a great deal of money. He can easily afford to spend $10,000 more a year, if his assets are really getting an 8.5% return.

Note: Selecting a Scenario will erase all your inputs and replace them with the Scenario's values. So it's a good idea to explore the Scenarios first, then settle on one similar to your situation, before entering your own values.

Inputs

This section discusses the numbers to enter on the menu.

avg annual return Average annual return on retirement savings. The default of 10% is a rough historical average for mutual funds with a blend of stocks and bonds.

Most people use more conservative investments during retirement than while saving for retirement, at the cost of a lower return on investment. So, there are two input boxes for avg annual return, one during savings phase, and one during retirement phase.

starting balance How much you've saved so far.

All savings are assumed to be in tax-deferred IRA's - the value compounds without taxes being removed. If this isn't true, you may need to adjust the avg annual return downwards.

add monthly How much to add each month to retirement savings.
inflation Inflation rate to use for projections. Defaults to 3%. Recently, inflation has been closer to 2.0%, but retirement savings are so sensitive to this value, that I chose to use a higher rate for a safety margin.
years to retirement How many years from now you want to retire. This is how long savings can compound before you start withdrawing funds to live on.

When changing this value, you may also need to adjust SS+pension monthly. Earlier or later retirement effects how much Social Security you'll receive. It's smart to explore what happens to your retirement prospects if you need (or want) to retire earlier than the year when Social Security gives maximum benefits.

age now Your age now is used to determine when you turn 70, 90, and 100. Retirees aged 70-90 are required to withdraw IRA funds according to the RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) rules set by the IRS. The calculator ends at age 100.
SS+pension monthly The Social Security amount you're supposed to receive at whatever age you are projecting to retire. The US Social Security administration sends an annual report to you of the expected value based on different of retirement ages. Any other pensions you're due should be added in, as a monthly amount.

This value needs to coordinate with the years to retirement value. For instance, if you retire 5 years sooner, you may get a lower monthly Social Security check.

It's unclear to what extent the SS reported values are post- or pre-inflation, so they're treated as post-inflation rather than constant dollars, which may be overly pessimistic.

max annual income Your retirement target income, pre-tax, in constant dollars (2004$).

Retirement income here is composed of Social Security checks, IRS mandated RMD withdrawals (if enabled), and earnings on your savings. Except for RMD, it assumes you won't draw down your savings, only the return on your savings each year. Max annual income limits withdrawals of earnings, to try to keep the total below this target.

Income goes above the target if SS and RMD alone exceed the target, because the amounts of those aren't your choice.

The point of this, of course, is to make your money last longer, and maybe even grow during retirement.

use RMD RMD stands for Required Minimum Distribution. For tax-advantaged US IRA retirement accounts, the IRS dictates RMD withdrawals of your savings, not just the earnings on those savings, for people aged 70-90. The calculation uses the current IRS schedule (the Uniform Lifetime Table) to calculate RMD. Inputs age now and years to retirement are used to figure which years you are aged 70-90.

Outputs

Retirement Savings Plot
If years to retirement is 0, this plot is blank, because the retirement savings period is over.
Value Value in $thousands of your savings, with compounded returns. This is in dollars, not inflation-adjusted (2004 constant) dollars.

The current value is compounded monthly. In other words, each month, the rate of return is applied to the balance so far, then the add monthly contribution is added. After 12 months, a point is added to the the plot for the year's ending balance.

To do this, we need a compounded monthly rate of return that yields the input annual return, which is not quite the annual return divided by 12 months:

    // monthly return is annual multiplier, to the 1/12th power
    monthlyReturn = Math.pow(1 + annRate/100, 1/12) 

    // grow previous value, then add monthly contribution
    value = prevValue x monthlyReturn + monthlyContrib
Contributions Sum in $thousands of monthly contributions. The dollars here are not inflation-adjusted, nor is the starting balance added in. It's assumed that your starting balance is already some unknown combination of contributions and compounded returns.
2003$
(this year)
This is the Value trace, adjusted for inflation to be equivalent in spending power to current dollars. Inflation is applied once per year.

    inflationMult = infPerYear = (100 - inflation)/100
    for each year
        2003$ = value x inflationMult
        inflationMult = inflationMult x infPerYear
Summary The bottom line on the plot gives a summary of this phase, the total end savings in constant dollars.
Retirement Income Plot
This plot begins the year after the savings phase ends, and continues to age 100. The lines show amounts per year. Note that the total amount of your savings is not shown, but you can tell whether it's growing or shrinking by the Earnings line going up or down.
SS+Pension A constant line, annualized SS+pension monthly.
RMD If use RMD isn't checked, this is a constant 0 line. If use RMD is on, applies the Internal Revenue Service Required Minimum Distribution rules, for ages 70-90, to draw down the retirement savings balance. The RMD forms part of the retirement income line.

RMD is based on the Uniform Life Table published by the IRS. Essentially, at any given age, this table says how long one is expected to live yet. The balance in one's IRA is divided by that number, and the IRS requires you to take that amount as income for the year, and pay taxes on it. The IRS table and rules are quite likely to change if you're a long way from retirement, and you're supposed to use a different table if your spouse's age is more than 5 years different than yours, and other complications. But the essential nature of the rule is likely to remain: IRA savings are tax-protected until retirement, and then you're required to withdraw and pay taxes on the money, whether you want the money as income or not.

Because you have no control over RMD, your income may exceed the value entered for max annual income some years. That means that Social Security plus RMD came to more than the amount you requested for that year.

RMD is taken out of your savings balance once per year, in a lump sum at the end of the year. It is added to the Income value for the year.

    RMD = savings / lifeExpectancy (from a table)
    savings = savings - RMD
    income = income + RMD
Earnings This is how much your savings balance earns, given the second (retirement phase) value for avg annual return. Total retirement savings is not shown on this plot because it dwarfs the more important income lines. But you can tell whether your savings are growing or falling by the direction of the Earnings line (your savings are growing if it's going up.)

This calculator assumes you want to live only on your earnings, not by withdrawing the bulk of your savings (until and unless you have to.) Given the guideline of max annual income, it tries to meet that by taking money from earnings, subtracting it from your balance, and transfering it to Income. If your RMD is high enough, the calculator may take nothing from earnings. If RMD + SS + earnings still doesn't reach your target income, the calculator doesn't draw down your savings, but just gives you a lower income.

The important point here is that Earnings is an available income stream, but is only tapped to try to meet your target income. Earnings is not added or subtracted directly from any other line.

Income Inflated pre-tax dollars - retirement income for the year. It is composed from Social Security (plus pension if you entered it that way), plus RMD as per age, plus as much of Earnings as is needed to reach your target income (max annual income). If all those don't reach the target, it takes all of Earnings (but does not draw down the balance.)

Income is taken once per year, at the end of the year.

If the Income line is flat, in inflated dollars, that's a "fixed income." Because of inflation, a fixed income will be worth less each year.

2003$
(this year)
The Income line, adjusted for inflation, to give current buying power. The calculator tries to get this line to track the value input for max annual income.
Summary The bottom line on the plot gives a summary of this phase, expected retirement income in constant dollars at the beginning of retirement.

Links

Some sites you may find interesting for more information:

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