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Inputs
This section discusses the numbers to enter on the menu.
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avg annual return
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Average annual return on retirement savings. The default of 10% is a rough
historical average for mutual funds with a blend of stocks and bonds.
Most people use more conservative investments during retirement than while
saving for retirement, at the cost of a lower return on investment. So, there
are two input boxes for avg annual return, one during savings phase,
and one during retirement phase.
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starting balance
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How much you've saved so far.
All savings are assumed to be in tax-deferred IRA's - the value compounds
without taxes being removed. If this isn't true, you may need to adjust the
avg annual return downwards.
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add monthly
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How much to add each month to retirement savings.
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inflation
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Inflation rate to use for projections. Defaults to 3%. Recently, inflation has been
closer to 2.0%, but retirement savings are so sensitive to this value,
that I chose to use a higher rate for a safety margin.
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years to retirement
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How many years from now you want to retire. This is how long savings can compound
before you start withdrawing funds to live on.
When changing this value, you may also need to adjust SS+pension monthly.
Earlier or later retirement effects how much Social Security you'll receive.
It's smart to explore what happens to your retirement prospects if you need
(or want) to retire earlier than the year when Social Security gives
maximum benefits.
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age now
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Your age now is used to determine when you turn 70, 90, and 100.
Retirees aged 70-90 are required to withdraw IRA funds according
to the RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) rules set by the IRS.
The calculator ends at age 100.
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SS+pension monthly
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The Social Security amount you're supposed to receive at whatever age you
are projecting to retire. The US Social Security administration sends an
annual report to you of the expected value based on different of
retirement ages. Any other pensions you're due should be added in, as
a monthly amount.
This value needs to coordinate with the years to retirement value.
For instance, if you retire 5 years sooner, you may get a lower
monthly Social Security check.
It's unclear to what extent the SS reported values are post- or pre-inflation,
so they're treated as post-inflation rather than constant dollars, which may be
overly pessimistic.
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max annual income
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Your retirement target income, pre-tax, in constant dollars (2004$).
Retirement income here is composed of Social Security checks, IRS mandated
RMD withdrawals (if enabled), and earnings on your savings. Except for RMD,
it assumes you won't draw down your savings, only the return on your savings
each year. Max annual income limits withdrawals of earnings, to try to
keep the total below this target.
Income goes above the target if SS and RMD alone exceed the target, because
the amounts of those aren't your choice.
The point of this, of course, is to make your money last longer, and maybe
even grow during retirement.
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use RMD
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RMD stands for Required Minimum Distribution. For tax-advantaged US
IRA retirement accounts, the IRS dictates RMD withdrawals of your
savings, not just the earnings on those savings, for people aged 70-90.
The calculation uses the current IRS schedule (the Uniform Lifetime Table)
to calculate RMD.
Inputs age now and years to retirement are used to figure which
years you are aged 70-90.
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Outputs
Retirement Savings Plot
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If years to retirement is 0, this plot is blank, because the retirement
savings period is over.
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Value
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Value in $thousands of your savings, with compounded returns. This is
in dollars, not inflation-adjusted (2004 constant) dollars.
The current value is compounded monthly. In other words, each month, the
rate of return is applied to the balance so far, then the
add monthly contribution is added. After 12 months, a point is
added to the the plot for the year's ending balance.
To do this, we need a compounded monthly rate of return that yields the
input annual return, which is not quite the annual return divided by 12 months:
// monthly return is annual multiplier, to the 1/12th power
monthlyReturn = Math.pow(1 + annRate/100, 1/12)
// grow previous value, then add monthly contribution
value = prevValue x monthlyReturn + monthlyContrib
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Contributions
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Sum in $thousands of monthly contributions. The dollars here are not
inflation-adjusted, nor is the starting balance added in. It's
assumed that your starting balance is already some unknown combination
of contributions and compounded returns.
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2003$
(this year)
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This is the Value trace, adjusted for inflation to be equivalent
in spending power to current dollars. Inflation is applied once per year.
inflationMult = infPerYear = (100 - inflation)/100
for each year
2003$ = value x inflationMult
inflationMult = inflationMult x infPerYear
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Summary
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The bottom line on the plot gives a summary of this phase,
the total end savings in constant dollars.
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Retirement Income Plot
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This plot begins the year after the savings phase ends, and
continues to age 100. The lines show amounts per year. Note
that the total amount of your savings is not shown, but you
can tell whether it's growing or shrinking by the Earnings
line going up or down.
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SS+Pension
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A constant line, annualized SS+pension monthly.
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RMD
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If use RMD isn't checked, this is a constant 0 line. If use RMD
is on, applies the Internal Revenue Service Required Minimum Distribution
rules, for ages 70-90, to draw down the retirement savings balance. The RMD
forms part of the retirement income line.
RMD is based on the Uniform Life Table published by the IRS. Essentially, at
any given age, this table says how long one is expected to live yet. The
balance in one's IRA is divided by that number, and the IRS requires you to
take that amount as income for the year, and pay taxes on it. The IRS table
and rules are quite likely to change if you're a long way from retirement, and
you're supposed to use a different table if your spouse's age is more than
5 years different than yours, and other complications. But the essential
nature of the rule is likely to remain: IRA savings are tax-protected until
retirement, and then you're required to withdraw and pay taxes on
the money, whether you want the money as income or not.
Because you have no control over RMD, your income may exceed the value
entered for max annual income some years. That means that Social Security
plus RMD came to more than the amount you requested for that year.
RMD is taken out of your savings balance once per year, in a lump sum at the
end of the year. It is added to the Income value for the year.
RMD = savings / lifeExpectancy (from a table)
savings = savings - RMD
income = income + RMD
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Earnings
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This is how much your savings balance earns, given the second
(retirement phase) value for avg annual return. Total
retirement savings is not shown on this plot because it dwarfs
the more important income lines. But you can tell whether your
savings are growing or falling by the direction of the Earnings
line (your savings are growing if it's going up.)
This calculator assumes you want to live only on your earnings,
not by withdrawing the bulk of your savings (until and unless
you have to.) Given the guideline of max annual income,
it tries to meet that by taking money from earnings, subtracting
it from your balance, and transfering it to Income. If your
RMD is high enough, the calculator may take nothing from earnings.
If RMD + SS + earnings still doesn't reach your target income, the
calculator doesn't draw down your savings, but just gives you a
lower income.
The important point here is that Earnings is an available
income stream, but is only tapped to try to meet your target income.
Earnings is not added or subtracted directly from any other
line.
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Income
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Inflated pre-tax dollars - retirement income for the year. It
is composed from Social Security (plus pension if you entered it
that way), plus RMD as per age, plus as much of Earnings as is
needed to reach your target income (max annual income). If all
those don't reach the target, it takes all of Earnings (but does
not draw down the balance.)
Income is taken once per year, at the end of the year.
If the Income line is flat, in inflated dollars, that's a "fixed income."
Because of inflation, a fixed income will be worth less each
year.
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2003$
(this year)
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The Income line, adjusted for inflation, to give
current buying power. The calculator tries to get this
line to track the value input for max annual income.
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Summary
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The bottom line on the plot gives a summary of this phase,
expected retirement income in constant dollars at the
beginning of retirement.
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Links
Some sites you may find interesting for more information:
Copyright © 2004 Ginger Booth |
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website
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